Making management decisions based solely on probability is useful when you can determine that the outcomes of your decisions are, for the most part, predictable based on your own or others' past ...

In preparation for our course in March, please read through these ten pages of notes. The (optional) material below comes from a five-week course on "probability" which I teach at Kellogg. Please feel ...

Epistemic decision theory integrates formal models of rational belief with the processes of decision‐making under uncertainty. It addresses how agents should revise their credences in light of new and ...

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

It is widely accepted that individuals tend to underinsure against low-probability, high-loss events relative to high-probability, low-loss events. This conventional wisdom is based largely on field ...

Jurors often must have an understanding of Bayesian reasoning to interpret DNA forensic evidence. Previous studies have suggested that representing probabilistic information in natural frequency ...